Container trade forecast growth

By Margaret Bux
clock 3 min

A series of cargo and throughput-related forecasts have been released by the State and Commonwealth authorities for the period  to 2032/33.

For Sydney, the volume of full containerised exports is projected to increase to 869,000 teu by 2033. Growth in full containerised exports is forecast at 3.4% a year until 2033, which is lower than the average of 3.8% over the last 14 years. The slowdown will likely be caused by slower average growth in Australia’s main export markets and a forecast slightly higher exchange rate of US$0.82 per A$ compared to a 20-year average of US$0.75 per A$. The volume of full containerised imports is forecast to more than double from the current volume (approximately 1.1m full import teu last year) to 2.6m teu by 2033. This represents a forecast growth rate of about 4.6% per year.

For Brisbane full-containerised exports, which increased by an average of 5.8% per year over the last 14 years, are expected to increase by 5% per year over the 20 years, from 335,000 teu in 2012/13 to 890,000 teu in 2032/33. This is due primarily to a positive economic outlook for the major export destination countries for Brisbane and the forecast increase in GDP of the OECD region. Full-containerised imports are forecast to increase by 6.6% per year over the next 20 years, from 480,000 teu in 2012/13 to 1.7m teu in 2032/33.

Port of Fremantle’s total container trade is forecast to grow 5.8% per annum over the next 20 years to 2.1m teu in 2032/33, says new research. This uplift follows from a yearly increase of 6.6% over the last 14 years to 670,000 teu in 2012/13. Total containerised imports through the port are forecast to increase by 5.7% per annum to 1m teu. Total containerised exports, which increased by 6.5% a year over the last 14 years, are forecast to increase by 5.8% a year over the next 20 years to 1m teu in 2032/33.

For Melbourne, the volume of containerised exports and imports are both expected to grow at the same rate of 4.8% per year over the forecast period to about 3.2m teu each by 2032/33.

Photo by wirralwater (NO MORE UPLOADS)


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